Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AVAX prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-06 16.783615 19.561489 22.607290 26.188098 30.275731 34.789324 40.143493
2024-10-13 12.678458 16.582278 21.313607 27.436572 35.113672 44.380676 56.369488
2024-10-20 9.569797 13.740535 19.217475 26.861748 37.167403 50.479056 68.856155
2024-10-27 7.281197 11.336069 17.040862 25.529818 37.689304 54.297386 78.471275
2024-11-03 6.478001 10.781996 17.188586 27.228583 42.323445 63.871127 96.561776
2024-11-10 5.975841 10.550875 17.706472 29.436560 47.823125 75.076583 117.899635
2024-11-17 5.160479 9.658066 17.042505 29.689201 50.324923 82.032777 133.541653
2024-11-24 4.378304 8.671588 16.058804 29.251230 51.613502 87.158162 146.726299
2024-12-01 3.670535 7.684749 14.914337 28.358043 51.993403 90.791483 157.754091
2024-12-08 3.203302 7.060067 14.303847 28.280215 53.677725 96.593904 172.639611
2024-12-15 2.844458 6.582547 13.887157 28.476631 55.816169 103.268258 189.412349
2024-12-22 2.331111 5.693980 12.558229 26.795842 54.380990 103.662289 195.481234
2024-12-29 2.119939 5.442363 12.500222 27.650531 57.900981 113.362036 219.117988
2025-01-05 1.975477 5.321845 12.708991 29.094964 62.761419 126.013928 249.284079
2025-01-12 1.685892 4.799867 11.981763 28.515089 63.593733 131.326467 266.567163
2025-01-19 1.386333 4.184733 10.942685 27.113951 62.584612 133.027589 277.212553
2025-01-26 1.330351 4.190954 11.333613 28.908805 68.387828 148.377203 315.007510
2025-02-02 1.306054 4.278625 11.930198 31.239732 75.556392 166.977362 360.444230
2025-02-09 1.172893 4.029681 11.658905 31.506407 78.243317 176.744912 389.128102
2025-02-16 1.022814 3.695792 11.116167 31.044192 79.241572 183.098643 411.384949
2025-02-23 0.873857 3.328106 10.420436 30.101436 79.020851 186.840518 428.512713
2025-03-02 0.777434 3.105763 10.082458 30.019282 80.797142 194.976618 455.361112
2025-03-09 0.702316 2.936779 9.866709 30.226616 83.283110 204.842314 486.554333